The selling prices for homes in the areas I follow have been hovering around fairly stable center prices, with some wide swings. This month I looked at those swings more closely and saw that there have been patterns. Over the past three years in North Kitsap (NK) and Bainbridge Island (BI), the low price points have occurred in the winter between about late October and the end of January. The high price points have been spring to summer, from about April to July.

Interestingly, for the same period in Jefferson County (SEJ), the cycle was reversed. The low price point occurred about July and the high point from November through about January. Why?

To try to uncover the reason behind this anomaly, I looked at the mix of home types that are sold in the two seasons among the three areas. In NK and BI the proportion of sales of higher priced homes (>$300K) compared to lower priced homes (<$300K) remained about the same or increased in the peak price summer months over the lower price winter months. While in SEJ the proportion of lower priced homes increased in the same summer months.

The most likely reason for this difference is found in the makeup of the buyer pool among the areas. Buyers in NK and BI are predominately working age people who live in the home they buy. This type of buyer tends to buy when they need to, so that the buying patterns don�t change a great deal from season to season.

 In SEJ more buyers are buying second homes. Their prices are usually less than the primary residences full time residents would be buying. These buyers more likely are shopping when the weather is nicer (who wants to shop for a summer place in the rain?), thus increasing the proportion of lower priced homes sold during those summer months.